Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Playing Time Projections from Hunter Johnson

Hunter is a current student who is among the most devoted fans of Bama Basketball that I have ever known. He is a Marks Madness officer, a good friend to several of the players, and attends just about every game every year, even those on the road. He watches the players in pickup games during the summer. (I think they even let him join with them when they are bored.) He knows more about Bama Basketball than most of us old timers.

Hunter forwarded me the following projections and I am proud to post them here with his permission. (Flash, if you're out there it's okay for you to send a comment arguing with Hunter if you wish. :-)). I could not figure out how to cut and paste or attach Hunter's projections, so I have read them into the first comment to this post.

Edit- here's the cut and paste from comments:

Hunter's Projections:

I got bored in English class today, so I started thinking about how playing time is going to shake out for the basketball team this year. We have 9 players with quality SEC experience and 3 players who were recruited to play immediately. That gives us a 12-man playing rotation, even though Coach Gottfried has not normally ever played more than 8. If we are going to play more of an up-tempo style this year, I think playing 12 guys could be really good. UNC made it work pretty well last year. The only problem is guys getting their egos hurt due to lack of minutes. If everyone can buy into the up-tempo philosophy, I think it could be great. Here are my projections for how the minutes will divided. Also, I don't think it will be like this the first game or that we will play 12 guys every night. And this is a mixture of both what I would do and how I think it will pan out. This is how many minutes I think each player will average per game in SEC play and how many they averaged last year during league play in parentheses. Here it is:

Starters
G Ron Steele 30
G Brandon Hollinger 20
F Mykal Riley 24
F Alonzo Gee 24
F Richard Hendrix 27
Bench
G Senario Hillman 14
F Demetrius Jemison 17
G Mikhail Torrance 13
G Rico Pickett 10
G Justin Tubbs 12
C Justin Knox 6
F Yamene Coleman 3

Hopefully, Steele will be healthy enough to give us 30 minutes a game. I think Hollinger's minutes will decrease due to the newcomers giving us tremendous depth at guard. Riley played alot last year, probably because he was our only perimeter threat when Steele was hurt. Gee is going to have to play more, as he is our only perimeter player who can defend the post well. 27 minutes is good for Richard, but he might have to play more if we can't get much out of Knox and Coleman. I think Senario will be our first guy off the bench. He is a real athlete and will provide a threat to penetrate at the 2-guard, which is something we've never really had. Jemison is going to have to step up this year, on both ends. I think Torrance will play a good bit more this year, as he began to play more at the end of last season. It will all be about if he can run the offense, which is something he had trouble with last year. I think Rico is a solid player who can give us some good minutes this year which will serve him well, as I think he will start at the point in 08-09. Tubbs may play more than 12, as I think he will be relied on as a "zone-buster." Knox is going to be a really good player, and he already is at the high post, but he needs some time to develop a low post game. Yamene is a guy who I think could end up playing alot more minutes, or not at all. Alot of people don't know about a health problem he had last year and a medication he had to take. It made him very sluggish. If he can overcome that, then I still think could end up playing alot this year

6 comments:

Alias said...

Hunter's Projections:

I got bored in English class today, so I started thinking about how playing time is going to shake out for the basketball team this year. We have 9 players with quality SEC experience and 3 players who were recruited to play immediately. That gives us a 12-man playing rotation, even though Coach Gottfried has not normally ever played more than 8. If we are going to play more of an up-tempo style this year, I think playing 12 guys could be really good. UNC made it work pretty well last year. The only problem is guys getting their egos hurt due to lack of minutes. If everyone can buy into the up-tempo philosophy, I think it could be great. Here are my projections for how the minutes will divided. Also, I don't think it will be like this the first game or that we will play 12 guys every night. And this is a mixture of both what I would do and how I think it will pan out. This is how many minutes I think each player will average per game in SEC play and how many they averaged last year during league play in parentheses. Here it is:

Starters
G Ron Steele 30
G Brandon Hollinger 20
F Mykal Riley 24
F Alonzo Gee 24
F Richard Hendrix 27
Bench
G Senario Hillman 14
F Demetrius Jemison 17
G Mikhail Torrance 13
G Rico Pickett 10
G Justin Tubbs 12
C Justin Knox 6
F Yamene Coleman 3

Hopefully, Steele will be healthy enough to give us 30 minutes a game. I think Hollinger's minutes will decrease due to the newcomers giving us tremendous depth at guard. Riley played alot last year, probably because he was our only perimeter threat when Steele was hurt. Gee is going to have to play more, as he is our only perimeter player who can defend the post well. 27 minutes is good for Richard, but he might have to play more if we can't get much out of Knox and Coleman. I think Senario will be our first guy off the bench. He is a real athlete and will provide a threat to penetrate at the 2-guard, which is something we've never really had. Jemison is going to have to step up this year, on both ends. I think Torrance will play a good bit more this year, as he began to play more at the end of last season. It will all be about if he can run the offense, which is something he had trouble with last year. I think Rico is a solid player who can give us some good minutes this year which will serve him well, as I think he will start at the point in 08-09. Tubbs may play more than 12, as I think he will be relied on as a "zone-buster." Knox is going to be a really good player, and he already is at the high post, but he needs some time to develop a low post game. Yamene is a guy who I think could end up playing alot more minutes, or not at all. Alot of people don't know about a health problem he had last year and a medication he had to take. It made him very sluggish. If he can overcome that, then I still think could end up playing alot this year

bamahoops said...

I like that Steele will play less, but don't like the minutes to Torrance. Obviously it's a prediction so things could change.

I think Coleman gets about 20 minutes per game. He's one of the few big bodies we got and we're going to have to use him defensively.

Good stuff... thanks to Hunter for that.

Hville said...

The only way I could see our bench guys averaging that many minutes is with as many injuries as we had this previous season. It would be like Riley getting a pull or a sprain and then Hillman suddenly coming in and spiking up to 20+ mpg. I guess what I am saying is, if CMG actually plays this much of his bench consistently, it will be a first. This way last season ended, I will accept any pleasant surprise I can get.....

bamahoops said...

Took the words out of my mouth Hville. I'll believe seeing more than 8 guys in the regular rotaton when I see it.

Alias said...

To his credit, Hunter did acknowledge that playing more than 8 men after December would be a change for Coach Gottfried. I don't really care what he changes, so long it is something and for the better. I need to confess that I am an optimist at heart. I suspect Hunter is where Bama Basketball is concerned. Let's hope our optimism is well founded, regardelss of the playing time patterns. I was glad to have something to pass along that did not involve a bicycle. :-)

Hville said...

Thank you, sir....