Upcoming 5-Game Stretch Could Determine Bama's Postseason Fate

2006. That was the last year our beloved Crimson Tide were selected for the holiest of holies in college basketball, the NCAA tournament. That's a long time in basketball years. Coming into this season many of us felt the drought might come to an end. Anthony Grant was entering his third year, the top three players from last season's 25-win team returned and the program welcomed in a top 10 recruiting class. After an early run of success culminating in wins over notables such as Maryland, Wichita State and Purdue in Puerto Rico, it looked certain this team was well on its way.

Then a funny thing happened on the way to the NCAA tournament: the team lost three out of four games in December, recovered, but are now in the midst of a 3-game losing streak in conference play. Fortunately, unlike last season, none of the losses so far can be regarded as a "bad" loss as all of the teams that have beaten Alabama are themselves projected to be in the NCAA tournament at this time. The only exception may be Dayton, but they are currently at the top in the Atlantic 10 conference and will certainly be among the 68 if they maintain their steady play.

Unfortunately, losing a steady stream of games to even good teams can not guarantee you a spot in the dance. You simply must win some of the tough games while remaining successful against the "bad" teams. Alabama remains in good shape thanks to a tough strength of schedule and a high RPI, but their best wins at this point are over Wichita State and Purdue.

While Wichita has held up their end of the bargain by being one of the top teams in a strong Missouri Valley, Purdue has faltered somewhat in Big 10 play. If the Boilermakers struggles continue, you can cross that win off Bama's "good wins" scorecard. After those two teams, VCU - tops in the Colonial - is probably Bama's next best win. Nothing particularly attractive, but far from ugly as it was a year ago.The resume so far would get Bama in, but it probably wouldn't result in a high seed. While some Bama fans would be happy with just making the tournament after a six-year drought, I wouldn't mind seeing the team stick around awhile. The chances of that improve if Bama can net a good seed.

As luck woud have it, the selection committee is not meeting today to select the 68 teams so Alabama has some more work to do. That work includes ending this 3-game losing streak and beefing up that tournament resume as February rears its ugly head. Alabama had a tough start to conference play in that they had to play three of the top teams in the conference right off the bat, two of those games on the road. While Bama played well enough to win but fell short on the road at MSU and Kentucky, the uninspired performance against Vandy in Tuscaloosa was a real killer in a game that could have provided another quality win to the resume.

Now the Tide faces a 5-game stretch, three of them on the road, that could potentially keep the tournament hopes comfortably afloat or send all of us into selection Sunday with rapid heartbeats and white knuckles. These five games, while obviously not automatic wins, do provide the team potentially better match-ups against teams either hoping to get on the bubble themselves or who are already hoping for a miracle run in the SEC tournament to have any chance of making the dance. In other words, the next five games are winnable games that Bama needs for momentum before it heads into a very important match-up against Florida on February 14th. Anything less than a 3-2 record at the absolute minimum over this stretch, and Bama could find itself squarely on the bubble for the month of February. If this team truly is an NCAA tournament team this season, they need to prove it in these next five games.