Tuesday, October 30, 2012

10 days away- what are your expectations for Bama this season?

The 2012-13 basketball season that is... as years down the road someone will stumble upon this confused :)

Here are mine. Quit reading NOW if you're looking for sunshine. Click on title to read more (testing jump breaks).


Non-conference slate:
- I say we go 10-3 with our biggest win coming over Oregon St in the 2K Sports Classic. Our schedule is light on marquee names, but decent in regards to RPI.
- I am sweating the SDSt Jackrabbits on Nov 9th. I'll be there to watch although the game tips around my bedtime.

In the SEC:
- I predict us to finish 6th with a 10-8 conference record, although I can see us as high as 4 or as low as 9. It all depends on the offense.
- Win one game in the SEC Tournament.

Postseason:
- Our non-conference schedule and slightly above .500 record in the SEC should land us a 10 seed. To be honest I hoping for better in year 4, but looking at this right now it's hard for me to place them higher. 7/10 NCAA tournament games are a crap-shoot so we could win one and then get a high 2 seed in the second third round.

Note- the above is what I think this team accomplishes, not what I want them to

11 comments:

Alex said...

Not ready to make a prediction until i see us in the first 2-3 games.
Right now I can see us anywhere from the NIT to a 6 seed.
It all depends on if Jacobs can hold his own and give us some points in the post game. We have no other scoring threat down low.

socacc said...

Pretty good analysis. I agree

Upside possible if we can shoot and develope post play - up to fourth in SEC and second round of Tourney

Downside possible if we do not develope a post defense without fileing- we could be under 500 in SEC and NIT

MSmilie said...

Alex: I'm not sure the first 2-3 games will determine how good or bad this team will be this season. The team is, for the most part, young. I believe they will need some time to sort things out. It wouldn't surprise me if they lose some games early but improve as the season progresses. The problem is early struggles could come back to haunt them in March because the non-conference schedule isn't quite as tough as last season so hopefully they can avoid the early struggles the 2010-11 team had.

I'll go with a 11-2/10-3 non-conference record and a 11-7/10-8 conference record. So 20-22 wins, 9-11 losses in the regular season. 11-7 or 10-8 in the SEC probably puts them between 4-6 in the standings. I think the SEC will be an improved conference this season so if they finish in the top six they should be in line for another NCAA tournament invitation, somewhere in the 8-11 seed range I would guess.

Anything less than a return to the NCAA Tournament would be a disappointment. While this team is young, they've got enough talent to at least finish in the top half of the conference standings. And if they do make it back to the tournament, hopefully they can win a game or two. My feelings about Grant are well known, but I'll be the first to admit that he needs some postseason success to placate a percentage of the fan base that remain on the fence concerning his leadership of the program.

Anonymous said...

I am much more worried about rebounding than scoring. I think we'll do Ok on offense, but Jacobs was not as consistent at rebounding as I would have thought. Engstrom and Moussa would have to really improve to help in this area.

Alex said...

I think the first few games will tell me enough, simply because I feel like you can only improve so much over the course of the season. If we just aren't able to produce down low in the first few games then we simply don't have it and it's not likely we will by the end of the season. However, if we show signs and it looks like either Jacobs is there with his game or is close to being there then it could be one of those seasons where we get stronger down the stretch.
I think the sophomores were all basically baptized by fire last year so I'm not expecting many growing pains from them only improvement. Again I think after I see them a few times I'll know where to put the ceiling on how good they can be.

Anonymous said...

This is year FOUR. We'd better be good.

Anonymous said...

Year Four with a Majority of underclassmen !

finebammer said...

i expect a 4th yr., 2 million a yr. coach to coach this team up and finish better than 6th in the conference. period.

this is grant's team. (notwithstanding steele) it's year four, it's time to see something. moussa and gueye improved tremendously last year in four games of significant playing time. what is the deal with recruiting players that somehow are able to shoot in hs then when they get to tusc. they're suddenly in brick city?

my deal on expectations is if we don't expect anything we'll get nothing. making the ncaa tournament is the bare minimum of what a basketball coach in a major conference should do.

it's time for anthony grant to start coach up to the money he makes. we got a flash last season of what can happen this season. it's just too bad it had to be limited to a flash. but there's no more excuses this season.

i appreciate the effort to 'keep it real'. but the reality is we have a multi-million dollar coach in his fourth season and finishing sixth in the conference and making the ncaa tournament isn't enough.

vanderbilt consistently outperforms us and they don't even have an athletic dept.

my 'keepin' it real' is expecting REAL progress this year. finishing 6th in the conference and a 7 - 10 seed ncaa invite ain't real enough for me.

as to any response concerning the situation with players, our coach makes two million dollars a yr.

coach.

Alex said...

Has anyone heard how we did in the closed scrimmage against Memphis? I know they have a very talented team so I'd be surprised if they didn't beat us, but then again I don't even know if they play full games in those scrimmages, could just be a bunch of situational stuff the coaches run the players through against each other.

Alex said...

Sorry for the double post, but here are some of Grants comments on the Memphis scrimmage. He was pretty tight lipped and according to him the NCAA limits how much he can talk about these closed scrimmages.

“It all may be rough edges at this point. It’s the first week in November, so I think what you want to be able to do is see where you can get better."
---
“We were sloppy in a lot of different ways,"
---
On Gueye
"He has a chance to really impact our team, on the defensive end rebounding the basketball, offensively, he is still learning where and how he can be effective"

Honestly the comments to me, don't sound encouraging. I am beginning to think he is trying to temper any high expectations from the fans with statements like this.

bobbyjack said...

Thanks Alex. I'm kinda worried at this point as well.

And Fb... I pretty much agree with you. If you asked me 3 years ago what my expectations were for year 4 I'd tell you top 4 in conference and a 5 or higher seed in the NCAAT.

Looking at the team now no sane person can predict that. We got more questions than answers IMO. Obviously I hope I'm wrong, but looking at the team objectively I can't in good conscience predict any higher than I did.