Monday, February 04, 2013

@ Barn preview and various NCAA projections (for Bama)

Wednesday night we travel to the Barn to take on the fightin' Barbees of Auburn. Auburn set the world on FAHR with their 2-0 start in conference play only to Auburn it up and lose their next 6. They did play Ole Miss to the wire in their last home game. (click title for more)


Frankie Sullivan (he played with Chuck Person I think) leads the team at 16.5 PPG. His only strong suit so far has been from the FT line as he sucks from the field (39%) and from 3 (29%). He does take most of their shots though. Allen Payne and Rob Chubb are a little better from the field, but combined have taken 15 more shots than Sullivan. They are the top 2 rebounders on the team. Chris Denson has started the last 2 games averaging 11 PPG.

Team stats
- 67.6 PPG
- .416 FG
- .333 3pt FG
- 7.8 steals

On paper we should win this one as CAG is undefeated @ the Barn, but I suspect this will be a close game beginning to end. IF THE REAL NICK JACOBS can show up I like our chances. The X factor IMO is Rodney Cooper. If he can hit the mid range jumpers it will open up the lanes for Releford and Lacey as well as get us some better looking shots from beyond the arc. Of course our O is 30 seconds of dribbling then a shot of some sort so I'm thinking too much here.

Game time is 8PM EST on SECN and watchespn.com. I'll be watching from my laptop.

NCAA Projections:
Bracketology has us as next 4 out.
Jerry Palm has us as first 4 out.

A few observations:
- We CANNOT lose to Auburn, M$U, or UGA this year. Any of those will be RPI killers. UGA is playing better, but they still suck. Also, losing to South Carolina at home would be a death blow.

- Looking at the schedule we could possibly go undefeated in February!

- While the above links have us in the running for a NCAAT invite, the big picture is we really need to go at the very least 13-5 in the SEC. I lean towards 14-4 and a decent SECT run to make it.

- The tournament bubble is soft and extremely large. We are going to have to distance ourselves from Maryland, Arizona St, Rutgers, Iowa St, St Louis, St Mary's, and FSU (and probably more).

30 comments:

finebammer said...

off topic, but:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/jamar-board-a-playground-legend-who-never-got-his-shot/2013/02/04/d1832fbc-6c87-11e2-8740-9b58f43c191a_story.html

MSmilie said...

Barbee appears headed for a third straight losing season. His team has lost six straight going into this game. Nevertheless, this is probably going to be another 50/50 game.

It's Alabama so you know the fans will pack the place. Barbee needs as many wins as possible down the stretch to convince the Auburn powers to bring him back for a fourth season so he needs a win over Alabama (and others) big time.

Can Alabama build on success? They followed up the Kentucky win with a game at Tennessee that they let get away from them. Can they avoid that same fate after the positive win in Nashville?

I just don't know if this team is good enough across the board to avoid losing some of these RPI-killing games in February. Auburn's fans will turn out and make this upcoming game a tough one, LSU and Georgia are playing better, and with Frank Martin on the bench I don't think you can count South Carolina as an automatic. To expect THIS team to win seven straight going into the Florida game may be asking too much.

Crimsontider said...

Auburn looks done, they are so soft, when something goes poorly, they go in the tank. Meanwhile Alabama has made a living this season on coming from behind, if we have to win another close game down the stretch we will. But if we can open up with a early lead, Auburn will go in the tank and Bama will cruise. Lunardi currently has us as one of the first 4 out, so needless to say we can't afford a loss to Auburn.

Alex said...

My halftime thoughts..

We aren't doing anything in the half court offense but Auburn is shooting maybe the worst FG % I've ever seen in major college basketball.
They have broken down our defense on a few of their possessions only to miss a layup or a close range shot.

I'm thankful to have a 10 point lead at the break but I really hope we try and push it down the floor with Releford in the second half because clearly we had the most success scoring when we did that.

I wish that Grant had taken a timeout and changed our offensive strategy when we went 7 minutes without scoring a point, but maybe he doesn't want to run too much and tire everybody out. I don't know I just wish we had a bigger lead.. When the other team scores 13 points in a half you need to build a big lead.

bobbyjack said...

Regardless of the outcome, this game set college basketball back 100 years!

Anonymous said...

This game has officially become unwatchable. Tonight Bama basketball has entered the realm of irrelevance. NSD was more exciting than this!

Alex said...

We need a change.
This is not acceptable by any standard.
There will be no NCAA tournament this year.

Anonymous said...

And there goes whatever shred of chance was left of an NCAA bid. Someone explain how Grant is twice as Gottfried?! (At least in salary.) except for the 49-pt beat down under Hobbs this is the worst loss in my 25 years of watching Bama ball. This Aub team is one of the worst in Div 1. Season is officially over. Who wants to watch a team playing for NIT seeding?

MSmilie said...

No words for tonight, fellas. No words. That has to be the worst Alabama performance I've ever seen, and I've seen plenty of them in my time. Scoring is down throughout college basketball (Kansas only has 13 points in the 1st half against TCU) but there is no excuse for only scoring 37 points against a team the caliber of Auburn.

This pretty much seals the NCAA Tournament deal, barring some wacky 2008 Georgia run in the SEC Tournament. Really sad to see it go down in flames this way.

I have been a vocal supporter of Anthony Grant, but if he doesn't make some changes after tonight I fear his time in Tuscaloosa is limited. Whether that involves a simple change in philosophy or changes to his staff, but this is simply unacceptable in its current state. I am a patient man, but 37 points against a bad Auburn team is the last straw. I sure hope DJC didn't make the trip.

bobbyjack said...

GUYS WE ARE 6-3 IN THE SEC! ALL IS WELL!
Grant needs a few more years to get the right players AND THEN WE WILL BE AUSOME!

LickCreek said...

I wouldn't care if they fired anthony grant tomorrow. Any of us could install an offense better than what we run. Our offense has been bad since he arrived and it has only gotten worse.

Anonymous said...

Is Pat Summitt available?

Alex said...

There really aren't too many big names out there right now, that's the problem.

Maybe Bruce Pearl?

Anonymous said...

When does Bruce Pearl's show clause expire?

finebammer said...

FOUR YEARS.

TWO MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR.

37 FUCKING POINTS. (against one of the worst auburn teams in recent memory)

FIRE ANTHONY GRANT'S ASS.

(just in from stewart: worst offensive output since 19FUCKING60, folks. 52 years)

Cam Newton's Degree said...

WDE! Our shitty coach dominated your shitty coach. And at half the price.

finebammer said...

"There really aren't too many big names out there right now, that's the problem."

there's somebody out there that can do better than this.

i want to say that again:

THERE'S SOMEBODY OUT THERE THAT CAN DO BETTER THAN THIS!

FIRE HIS ASS.

MOVE ON.

Alex said...

finebammer try and remember as bad as Grant is there are still like 8 coaches/programs in the SEC that are even worse than us.

We can't just go find "someone else" because we might end up like Auburn, Miss State, or LSU.

Crimsontider said...

What i said before the game is exactly the opposite of what happened. While I am not ready to fire Grant, his seat got a little warm tonight. There needs to be changes within the coaching staff immediately, like Tommorow!!!!!! Grant should burn the offensive play book. If he can't make the necessary changes than he is not going to last long, because tonight was an abomination. As for the players, nobody gave an ounce of effort, (not even Steele). There is one particular player on the team named Nick Jacobs who rarely gives any effort defensively. I would like to see Jacobs benched, because it is so awful to watch him loaf around, and completely underachieve. At least Green and Mitchell were able to combat their awful attitudes with solid play, unlike Nick JOKEobs. Fire some coaches, bench JOKeobs! This should be done tomorrow!

Anonymous said...

For Bama ball supporters this was the worst possible scenario. An historically inept offensive performance against the worst Barn team in years on the day of an epic NSD in football. Bama will never be a Fla or Ohio State. I love football but I cannot fathom why we can't field a competitive bball team too. @bobbyjack: 6-3 in the weakest SEC in decades! I went to a LaSalle game game the other night and I think they would finish second behind the Gators. If Ole Miss takes a few more losses don't be surprised if the league gets one bid if Fla wins the SEC tourney.

Crimsontider said...

I don't understand how a game that had so much meaning, resulted in our players giving this type of effort. If we were going to play with such lackluster effort, why didn't we just keep Mitchell? At least he was good, why not play Retin? Why in the world are Ben Eblen and Charles Hankerson not on this team? The way Grant has managed his roster, leaves much to be desired.

DJC said...

I'm glad I was not able to make it down there. I have some thoughts, most of them not appropriate for this family friendly blog right now, but I am going to wait till tomorrow to post anything substantive. I want to take some time to calm down and hopefully post something rationale rather than the emotional, knee jerk reaction that would result if I started typing my mind tonight.

bama-lib said...

I feel sick. Can't stand this.

If we can hold our opponents to less than 50 points in a game by holding the ball, draining the clock, and minimize the opponent's possessions, we will win !

Whaaaaaaat? You mean you have to put the ball in the hoop on our side of the court ? ? ?

It's a joke, although I'm in no mood to make jokes. I guess that was an angry-joke.

But just because Kansas lost to one of the worse teams, and because Alabama lost to the other worse team, DOESN'T MEAN that Kansas and Alabama are incapable of winning against all the others of the conference. (Yes, we can!). Alabama has the capability to beat any team in the SEC, despite this loss tonight to 'town of awburn', and despite having a small roster of so many young players.

In reality, Alabama shot the ball enough times to win the game, but started to miss EVERYTHING. Why are they missing everything?

The Guards are exhausted?
Our Guards carry the entire offensive responsibility on their shoulders.
Levi Randolph was 0/7 in his shot attempts, and for the 3-point shots, Releford was 0/6, and Lacey was 0/3, and Steele was 0/4.

In this game, only 8 shot attempts came from the forwards/centers. 41 shot attempts came from the guards. How much worse can such an imbalance be?

We don't have the personnel we need in the paint. Our current "bigs" bring more detriment than benefit (although on this particular night, the same can be said for the Guards as well, honestly). Jacobs with 2 rebounds for the game...Gueye with more offensive fouls than points (or shot attempts.)

Recruiting isn't easy in basketball, but we, as Fans of the Crimson Tide, must continue to be avid supporters, with positive and passionate minds, and pour on the love that Bama Football benefits so much from. I no longer worry about Alabama football recruiting, but I do worry and fret and have anxiety about Basketball Recruiting. I really really hope Taylor and Hale are working on some offensive power for next year. I wonder if there will be any additional signees besides those two for an already depleted team....

HELP !

Rocky Mountain High Tide said...

What the f happened this week? After that rousing comeback at Vandy, a historic win, to this crap? I'm firmly convinced this team's issues are way beyond simply a bad offense and Xs and Os...These guys don't want to play for Grant. His standoffish attitude and stubborness we see in the media is the real him. Someone of us saw it first hand in the Virgin Islands (one of us was smart enough to attend one game and beach the others). It happened last year and now again. It won't get better unless Grant admits he's the problem. His boss needs to do his AD job and have a conversation NOW! Hell, send in Saban to talk to him.

I'm just pissed off because the program is regressing after vast improvements in the 1st two years. Maybe this was meant to be a down year with the feeling that 2014 is our time. But it's obvious something is going on between Grant and Releford and I don't know a damn fact so I'm not going speculate about who's right or wrong. I will be stunned if Releford is back next year which kills my expectations. Maybe.

It is strange that some of the best basketball we've played all year (at M$U and end of Vandy), Releford was on the bench. Yet tonight, when we got cold in the 1st half, it's Lacey who rides the pine most of the half? Why?

finebammer said...

"We can't just go find "someone else" because we might end up like Auburn, Miss State, or LSU."

might end up like??

did you watch the game???

finebammer said...

and i would remind everyone that four years in, an embarrassing loss to auburn was the final straw that got david hobbs.

and let's be honest with each other about a couple of things here:

one, if that garbage last nite didn't feel like the 40 pt. loss to auburn in hobb's final year, you just weren't around then. and it FELT that way because it IS that way.

auburn is the "E" on your gas gauge.

the ONLY reason we have a winning record is because of the horrible competition in our conference.

beam this team back to hobb's final year facing the competition he faced, it would look the same, maybe worse.

that auburn team could have beat this alabama team by 70!

two, to the "family-friendly" nature of this blog and worries about young eyes and sensibilities being bruised, if you know of children who are interested enough in alabama basketball to read about it anywhere, please, get them help immediately.

have the appropriate adult look them over for self-inflicted cigarette burns or cuts, immediately.

for us, as adults, we're too far gone.

(don't tape a picture of a jared loughner on your mirror for self-comparison after a game like last nite. you'll be checking yourself into an institution)

but exhibiting interest in this program is a serious red flag for a child.

i'll guarantee you they're torturing small animals or pets too.

Anonymous said...

Rocky Mountain Tide -- You are exactly right!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Actually, it's NOT obvious something is going on between Grant and Releford. If you don't know a 'damn fact', why are socalled facts being declared??
Releford expressed frustration in this game, but frustration only occurs when you care. He's fighting hard for his teammates, his coach, his school, and his family's honor. He's the leading scorer in most games. He wants to win. Stop creating rumors, while everyone is in panic and diluria.

DJC said...

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle with Releford. There are certainly some red flags, starting with his spending the summer in Kansas City instead of AL, his early season benching for issues that we still don't know, and his tweets shortly after the Mercer loss where he seemed more concerned about where to party for his 21st Bday kind of rubbed me the wrong way. When you compare his body language to that of Moussa Gueye or Levi Randolph, it certainly seems that winning is more important to some guys than others. That being said, I know not everyone displays the same degree of emotion outwardly, so I caution against reading too much into that; I am merely pointing out that there are some indications that Releford may not be the leader Coach Grant wants or expects him to be.

MSmilie said...

In defense of Releford: He seems to have a strong family unit so his desire to spend the summer closer to his family is understandable. Yes, summer is the best time to spend with your teammates in order to build chemistry, but I'm not going to bag on a guy who wants to spend the summer break with his family.

As far as the tweets go. I treat athletes the way I treat musicians, writers, actors, or any other type of public figure that I admire by staying as far away from them as possible. It's been my experience that if I ever got to know these people personally or had too much access to their everyday lives, I could find myself admiring them less. My advice is to stop following these guys on Twitter.

I don't think athletes carry wins or even losses the way fans do. That game last night depressed me in a way that I can't really describe, and I didn't take a shot. Even now, I still can't totally wrap my mind around that performance last night. Seems like a bad dream. However, I think these kids are able to disconnect themselves from basketball after practice, film and the games are over in a way that fans can't. They have to. For most of these kids, basketball takes up a great deal of their lives and if they didn't have an outlet, they'd burn out. So I can excuse Releford for seemingly being more concerned about his 21st birthday party than a loss to Mercer. I moped around a few days after that loss. As a player, you really don't have that luxury or chances are you will get beat again.

That's what the Alabama players and coaches have to do. Forget about that game last night. It was a historically bad outing which will never be erased from our minds, but the players just need to move on and prepare for LSU on Saturday.